William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach have recently revised their annual forecast for likely hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. They foresee an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic in 2005. They also anticipate an above-average probability of US major hurricane landfall. They have adjusted their forecast upward from an early December forecast and state that they may further raise their prediction in later updates if they can be sure El Niño conditions will not develop this year. Grenada and the Cayman Islands were particularly badly hit in september last year by Hurricane Ivan. Bermuda was hit by Hurricane Fabian in 2003. By the numbers from their report:

"Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons."